Create detailed forward looking "forecast" for your business, with 3 key b, with varying confidence levels in terms of how sure you are the forecast will come true.
<aside> 1️⃣ Up Case [”Plan”, 30% Confidence Case] - this is your 'upcase' or ‘stretch’, it should directly connect to your DFS (what you want to happen).
Communicate this to the team as what we're going for, your plan. We'll prioritize and resource to accomplishing this ambitious but doable plan.
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<aside> 2️⃣ Base Case [”Projection”, 60% Confidence Case] - Shift from ambitious entrepreneur to investor.
Size your risks. What do you THINK will happen actually? Where is your plan weak or risky? What can go wrong? Assume some of your key bets won’t work.
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<aside> 3️⃣ Conservative Case [”Just coast plan”, 90% Confidence Case] - Assume nothing works, every metric you use to run your business gets slightly worse, none of your goals are achieved, but you have high confidence the forecast represents what your business will look like.
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This is an example simple view of 30/60/90 from one of my Ampush business units.
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Kahani Example —> Financial Plan & Projection Summary [SaaS Biz Example]